Theory Mapping Pilot Test: Who Shot JFK?

f
Why choose the JFK assassination debate?

The debate about 'Who shot JFK?' may seem like a strange subject to choose to pilot test Theory Mapping, but actually they are a number of reasons why it would make an ideal test case:

• About a valid issue: both sides of the debate do have coherent arguments that should be respected, and many see the assassination as a turning point in American history. In particular. the JFK assassination has given rise to the modern form of conspiracy theories that some academics argue are based on sophisticated analyses of the forces at work in a modern globalised world. For instance, Peter Knight, a Senior Lecturer in American Studies at the University of Manchester, and author of the book The Kennedy Assassination writes that "It's arguable, therefore, that Kennedy assassination conspiracy theories are no longer necessarily the sign of crackpot, delusional thinking that borders on clinical paranoia...The public support for the findings of Kennedy assassination critics also suggests that conspiracy theories have moved from the fringe to the mainstream of American society" (p.98,99) Indeed, the vast majority of Americans believe in some form of conspiracy theory about the assassination.
• Current lack of progress: a number of commentators believe that the JFK assassination debate, although pioneering in its heyday, has since got stuck in a rut. As Knight argues, "There has been no steady convergence of opinion about the case, not only between the lone gunman and conspiracy theory camps, but within the latter position" (p.99)
• Heavy duty problem: the lack of progress may be traced to a number of fundamental problems. These problems are exactly what Theory Mapping is designed to solve, and so the debate will test the method to the full. The problems include: a) Inability to falsify theories by testing hypotheses i.e. it is not amenable to the scientific method (Theory Mapping does not require falsifiability); b) Involves a large number of facts that have been amassed by the different sides over the years, which is hard to collate: "...the problem is not that there is too little evidence to solve the case but too much data for anyone to master easily..." (Knight p.100) (Theory Mapping provides a way to systematically assess theories in terms of any number of facts); c) It involves different world views, since conspiracy theorists make different assumptions about the trustworthiness of government and hence treat the evidence collected by government agencies differently from those adhering to the ‘lone gunman theory’. "...it has produced a free-fall of suspicion that begins to doubt everything - even the fundamental ground rules of proof and evidence" (Knight p.100) (Theory Mapping allows different world views to have their own rules of proof and evidence, providing they are coherently justified); d) Distorted incentives and lack of quality control, leading to misinformation, back-biting and fraud (by having an objective test of the truth, Theory Mapping ensures that everyone's incentives are correctly aligned).
  
• High profile issue: the JFK assassination is a high-profile issue which many people feel passionately about. There is therefore likely to be a good supply of people willing to engage in the debate and overcome the initial costs of learning how to use the Theory Mapping method.

Implementation Plan

The plan to implement the pilot test is currently as follows:

1. Identify a software company and/or research institution that share the vision for Theory Mapping and are interested in sponsoring the first debate.
2. Find two high-profile JFK experts to conduct the first debate, one for the Lone Gunman Theory, and one for a version of conspiracy.
3. Run the first debate in private while recording all the content.
4. Evaluation of the private stage of the pilot test, with a report to partners on the debate's performance and lessons learnt.
5. If successful, secure seed funding to set up the organization, software and website. This would start with the content from the first JFK debate and open the debate up to the public, with marketing through the various JFK discussion boards.
6. Evaluation of the public stage of the pilot test, with a report to partners on performance and lessons learnt.
7. Modifications made as appropriate.
8. Full launch with debates and competitions on any subjects possible.
f