New to Theory Mapping?

Theory Mapping is a new and potentially revolutionary method to improve the quality of theories that society uses. It does this by improving the generation, communication, critique, refinement and selection of theories. It is particularly applicable to areas of inquiry which are not amenable to controlled experiment, where it provides a systematic approach to using empirical evidence and logic in the evaluation of theories.

It consists of drafting Argument Maps for each theory (in which ideas and arguments are represented by boxes connected by arrows) and then measuring how coherently they can explain agreed facts.

Whatbeliefs.com is the home of Theory Mapping. For more information the best place to start is the FAQs, which link to all the various posts on the site.
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Friday 20 February 2009

Problems that Theory Mapping solves

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The value of Theory Mapping is in solving two key problems that plague any debate between people holding to different theories:

  • Lack of clear communication: much time is wasted in debates because neither side fully appreciates the position of the other. This may be broken down into three aspects. Firstly, each side basing their arguments on implicit assumptions that even they may not be consciously aware of. Theories are like icebergs, in which most of the structure lies below the surface in the form of implicit assumptions. If these assumptions are not exposed there is no hope of properly understanding each theory and resolving the debate. Secondly, lack of clear expression from each side of their ideas and arguments. And thirdly, neither side paying enough attention to really understand the other's position. Theory Mapping addressing all of these aspects. The first two are dealt with by using Argument Maps which ensures complete clarity of the arguments and that all assumptions are uncovered. The third is dealt with by providing a process which requires each side to study the other's position in detail.
  • Lack of an agreed truth test: we would say that it was crazy to have a race without an agreed course and finishing line. Everyone would either run in different directions and claim themselves to be the winner, or simply not bother competing. Yet amazingly that is the situation we are in when it comes to competitions between theories, particularly outside the physical sciences where controlled experiments are generally not possible. Beyond a vague requirement that theories fit the facts, there is no clear procedure to be followed to ensure that theories are trying to explain the same thing and can be easily compared (the course) and no objective measure of which theory fits the facts best and is hence most likely to be true (the finishing line). As in the race analogy, this not only results in massive inefficiency as people's incentives are not aligned with the objective of identifying the most accurate theories, but also reduces people's participation in debates since their accepted worldview is never objectively challenged. Theory Mapping therefore provides rules to ensure the comparability of theories, and an objective quantitative truth test based on the latest thinking in Epistemology.
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