New to Theory Mapping?

Theory Mapping is a new and potentially revolutionary method to improve the quality of theories that society uses. It does this by improving the generation, communication, critique, refinement and selection of theories. It is particularly applicable to areas of inquiry which are not amenable to controlled experiment, where it provides a systematic approach to using empirical evidence and logic in the evaluation of theories.

It consists of drafting Argument Maps for each theory (in which ideas and arguments are represented by boxes connected by arrows) and then measuring how coherently they can explain agreed facts.

Whatbeliefs.com is the home of Theory Mapping. For more information the best place to start is the FAQs, which link to all the various posts on the site.
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Friday, 13 February 2009

Theory Mapping and Intelligence Analysis

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There are currently two main competing tools to assist intelligence analysts in analyzing data to decide between different theories about what is going on behind the scenes: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH); and Hypothesis Mapping (HM).

Theory Mapping is essentially a synthesis of them both, and hence combines both of their advantages without the weaknesses:

  • Like Analysis of Competing Hypotheses: Theory Mapping involves clarification of the facts to be explained, and a quantitative measure to assess the power of a theory in fitting the facts.
  • Like Hypothesis Mapping: Theory Mapping uses Argument Mapping which allows theories and their justifications to be outlined in a much more sophisticated way than ACH. See Tim van Gelder's blog for the advantages of HM over ACH.
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Posted by Strahan Spencer at 01:49

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